The Demise of the Republican Party

Yes, yes, the Republican Party is doomed. They lost the 2012 presidential election, failed to retake the Senate, and dropped a few seats in the House. Demographics continue to work against the party with Latinos increasing in numbers and Christians falling. The dominance of the left in the media, universities, and popular culture has finally resulted in political dominance and the ultimate doom of the right.

If only that were true. If so, I could abandon my party of two decades, officially call myself a Libertarian, and get behind a party that has never won a major national election. Or I could jump on the bandwagon of one of a dozen conservative third-parties that will be footnotes to history and insignificant in as little as… wait, they’re already insignificant.

As I've said before, it's time for conservatives to focus on reality. This includes eliminating their own faith-based arguments, but more importantly it requires ignoring the hyper-partisan messaging coming from the left and focus on the world as it is. Yes, we lost a big election; but most presidential incumbents win a second term, so we shouldn't be so surprised.

I don't want to create an optimistic view of the future because, frankly, I don't feel all that optimistic. But let me offer a few doses of reality to help us cope until the 2014 elections:

Republican Dominance at the State Level    While Republicans have not found much success at the national level since 2010, they remain dominant at the state level (30 governorships and 27 legislatures). Republicans have seen gains in state houses and governor's mansions, and continue to pass conservative economic policies at the state level.

2014 Electoral Advantages    Republicans are also poised to take back seats in both the House and Senate in 2014. While the Democrats have to defend 20 seats in the Senate (many in conservative states), Republicans only have to defend 13 (only 1 at serious risk to Democrat challengers). In the House, Democrats need to pick up 17 seats in a year that even Democrats acknowledge is leaning Republican or, at best, neutral.

2016 Presidential Campaign    The Republican Party will remain competitive in 2016 with a broad field of candidates and the prospect of facing either Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton in the presidential campaign. Regardless of candidate, the voting public generally changes parties in the White House every eight years, so history would give the Republicans slightly better than a 50/50 shot in the 2016 election.

Not to mention, I believe in conservative values and no other party in American politics comes closer to my own ideology than the Republican Party, given all of its well-known flaws. I'm not renouncing my party membership after losing one important election. The Democrats will never serve my conservative values, so I'll continue to hitch my wagon to the number two horse because the future isn't as glum as everyone seems to think.